Bonn/New York, October 7, 2026: The latest DHL Globalization Tracker, released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, has found that the global boom in artificial intelligence is powering world trade to new highs, with globalization reaching a record 25.8% in 2025 and global goods trade growth forecast to outpace the previous decade through 2029.
The report, based on over 30 million data points, shows that demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment has become a dominant force in global trade, outweighing the effects of tariffs and geopolitical shocks. In the first half of 2026, global goods trade grew faster than in any half-year since the exceptional Covid rebound, with AI-related goods accounting for 76% of goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, up from 42% in 2025, according to WTO and OECD data.
East Asia & Pacific Lead Trade Growth
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth among all regions, with trade value rising 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa followed, with growth of 12% and 11% respectively. The share of East Asia and Pacific trade staying within the region also increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in early 2026, driven by robust Asian supply chains supporting the AI boom.
Tariffs and Geopolitical Shocks Have Limited Impact
Despite disruptions from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a 37% drop in trade value for Saudi Arabia and a 7% fall for the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026, the overall impact on global trade remained limited. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but the United States accounted for just 13% of world imports, with about half of those exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Most countries avoided broad retaliation, instead seeking new trade agreements to secure market access.
Global Trade Outlook Upgraded
The DHL Globalization Tracker projects global goods trade to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, up from the 2.7% annual rate seen in the previous decade. Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, said, “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries.”
U.S.–China Ties Decline, No Global Split
The report notes a significant decline in U.S.–China ties, with trade between the two countries falling from 3.5% of world trade at its 2015 peak to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. Their share of international business investment is now less than 1%. However, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their economic relationships with China, challenging the idea that U.S.–China decoupling is dividing the global economy into rival blocs. The report also highlights that U.S. reliance on China, when accounting for indirect imports via third countries, has declined only slightly through 2024.
Globalization Index Hits New High
The DHL Globalization Tracker measures globalization on a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, the index reached a record 25.8%, with all four flow categories—trade, capital, information, and people—contributing to the new high. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade, while people flows are the least globalized.
The DHL Globalization Tracker, formerly known as the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, is authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of NYU Stern School of Business, and draws on data from more than 25 public, private, and academic sources. DHL Group, headquartered in Bonn, Germany, operates in over 220 countries and territories and generated revenues of approximately 82.9 billion Euros in 2025.
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