More than half (52%) of the additional global premiums to be written in 2024?2025 are expected to be generated from emerging markets (including China), up from 45% in the past five years, says Swiss Re Institute (SRI).
In a new sigma report, titled “Risks on the rise as headwinds blow stronger: global economic and insurance market outlook 2024?25”, SRI said, “We continue to see China as the engine of emerging markets growth, representing 68% of the additional premiums of the next two years. Here, the fundamentals of the economy, including a growing middle class and rising risk awareness will continue to support a moderate recovery in risk-type products.
“Meanwhile, consumers’ willingness to save more in fear of future income, low bank interest rates and policy support for private pensions are likely to boost sales of savings products.”
In emerging markets, SRI expects 7.6% premium growth driven by strong growth in China (10.2%), where life premiums are being boosted by strong sales of savings-type products, mainly via the bancassurance channel.
In other emerging markets (excluding China), premiums are expected to return to growth in 2023 after a slight contraction in 2022. This is supported by a mix of factors across emerging markets including regulatory changes and demand for inflation-linked products.
In the Asia-Pacific region, overall insurance premiums are forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2024 and 2025, compared to the region’s estimated growth of 0.7% in 2023.
In some advanced Asian markets (e.g. Singapore) due to repricing for life products with a time lag, while other financial products become more attractive in the short term in the context of higher interest rates.
