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Textron Aviation leads business aircraft unit deliveries in $299 billion total forecasted delivery market; Airbus Helicopters will deliver 39% of helicopters
NEW YORK , NY, USA, October 3, 2023 /EINPresswire.com/ — Aviation Week Network today announces the 2024 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast and the 2024 Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecast, a 10-year outlook of the respective industries, is now available. Produced with independent projections and data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s (AWIN) internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show the broader, worldwide business aviation fleet is growing from 34,897 aircraft to 39,719 aircraft, a 14% increase in fleet counts compared to 2023 and a 1.4% CAGR. Meanwhile, the Helicopter forecast sees the broader, worldwide turbine-powered fleets growing at a 1.3% CAGR reaching 24,297 units in 2033.
The business jet fleet segment will see the biggest gains, while business turboprops will see more subdued growth, but with single-engine turboprop types replacing multi-engines at a quicker pace. The MRO aftermarket for business aircraft sees more than a 2.9% CAGR overall, with $138 billion in total demand, 28% of which is engine requirements, growing at 3.7% CAGR. Engine maintenance is becoming an ever-increasing share of MRO demand. Despite huge improvements in engine overhaul intervals, costs are increasing, yet it still does not surpass the modifications aftermarket category, which comprises a 31% share of total demand.
New aircraft delivery values will be worth $299 billion over the next 10 years with Textron’s product line soundly outpacing unit deliveries by Gulfstream and Pilatus. However, Gulfstream’s delivery values outperform both Textron and Bombardier. “The business aviation market is still riding the positive, post-pandemic wave in nearly every metric, historically speaking,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights. “Despite recent signs of softening, the long-term prospects are optimistic.”
Business aircraft deliveries, counting both jet and turboprop segments, will number over 1,000 aircraft in 2024 and reach the 1,200-unit mark from 2026 to 2031. Business jets account for 9,000 of the total deliveries with turboprops accounting for the remaining 2,800 deliveries over the 10-year period. Additionally, 6,362 total aircraft are expected to retire during the same time period.
Turbine-powered helicopter deliveries are projected to exceed 6,400 over the decade, while aircraft retirements will total just over 3,300 units, which translates to a 1.3% fleet CAGR. Airbus will lead deliveries over the forecast period with a 39% share of delivery units over the period. The top three leading helicopter type deliveries are placed with the Airbus H125/H130 family, the Bell 505 Jet Ranger, and the Robinson R66, in third place. Aftermarket MRO demand is to grow at a 1.3% CAGR on a non-inflationary basis. Retirement activity frequency is concentrated in the second half of the forecast period.
Both the 2024 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast and 2024 Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecast findings detail market demands and industry trends accounting for the impact of economic and macro trends on global fleets and MRO. By combining current fleet counts and stats, projected aircraft fleet changes, in-house flight data derived utilization projections, and segmented MRO cost analytics, the forecast delivers critical strategic insights for each market sector.
The 2024 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast is scheduled for release in early-October. The 2024 military forecast will be released by November 6.
For more information on Aviation Week Network’s 2024 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Anne McMahon at +1 646 469 1564, [email protected] or go to aviationweek.com/fleetforecast.
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