New Delhi: Having pipped Japan to become world’s third largest oil consumer, India’s oil consumption growth will be the fastest among all major economies by 2035, BP Statistical Review of World Energy said. India, Asia’s second biggest energy consumer since 2008, had in 2015 overtaken Japan as the world’s third largest oil consuming country behind US and China.
“We project that India’s energy consumption grows the fastest among all major economies by 2035. As a result, the country remains import dependent despite increases in production,” it said.
While energy consumption will grow by 4.2% per annum—faster than all major economies in the world— India’s consumption growth of fossil fuels would be the largest in the world. India, it said, will overtake China as the largest growth market for energy in volume terms by 2030.
Natural gas consumption would jump from 4.9 billion cubic feet per day to 12.8 bcfd while coal consumption is project to more than double to 833 million tons. India’s energy demand growth at “129% is more than double the non-OECD average of 52% and also outpaces each of the BRIC (Brazil Russia India China) countries as China (47%), Brazil (41%), and Russia (2%), all expand slower,” BP said.
Its share of global energy demand increases to 9% by 2035, accounting for the second largest share among the BRIC countries with China at 26%, Russia at 4% and Brazil at 2%.
BP said India’s demand for gas expands by 162%, followed by oil (120%) and coal (105%).
Renewables rise by 699%, nuclear by 317% and hydro by 97% by 2035. “The fuel mix evolves very slowly over the Outlook (period) with fossil fuels accounting for 86% of demand in 2035, compared to 92% today. The share of coal in the fuel mix falls from 58% to 52% by 2035, while the share of renewables rises from 2% to 8%,” it said.
Energy production as a share of consumption declines marginally from 58% today to 56% by 2035 as imports rise by 138%. “Declining oil production (-26% ) is outweighed by increases in gas (+154% ) and coal (+104%), and non-fossil fuels (+312%),” BP said.
Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in India with a 65% share of total production in 2035. Renewables overtakes oil as the second largest, increasing from 4% to 14% in 2035 as oil drops from 10% today to 3% by 2035.
“Oil imports rise by 165% and account for 56% of the increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas (173%) and coal (105% ),” it said.