Ken Research announced its latest publication on, “Hot Coffee Consumption Volume and Growth Forecast to 2021-Latin America”, offer insights on the changing trends and key issues within the Latin American Hot Coffee market. The publication includes an insightful analysis of volume (M liters) and growth (Y-o-Y) trends, consumer behavior, packaging trends, leading players and distribution trends withinLatin American Hot Coffee market. The analysis of the aforementioned trends has been done across seventeen individual countries in Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
Economic Environment of Latin America
Latin America comprises of a total of twenty countries including ten republics of South America, six republics of Central America, Mexico, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. History of Latin America’s economy can be based at the three decades after World War II, when it experienced a blooming increasing in GDP, growing at around 5%. However, the weakness of its economic structure was revealed in the crisis of the 1980s. This led to various reforms in economic structure in order to come with a more stable economy which will thrive and make it significant in international arena.
This proved useful as Latin America went through a steady growth coming into the 21st century with average annual growth of 4.2% from 2004 to 2013. However the bright sunlight seems to be fading quickly, as Latin America is getting trapped in the darkness of recession. Latin American Economy has went through a near free fall kind of experience, with contraction in Q3’15 and Q4’15 being quoted as the sharpest fall in last six years. The overall GDP of the region is estimated to have decreased 1.2% y-o-y in Q1’16 suggesting overall weakness in economy. One of the many reasons for this downfall was the dramatic drop in commodities price, which resulted in sharp decline in export revenues of commodity-driven Latin American economy. Not only this, high inflation is seen persisting this year with a projected inflation of at 24.3% at the end of 2016. However all these data does not provide a complete picture as the appalling deterioration of some countries masks the fact that other countries are still going up the ladder.
The three pillars that form the majority of region’s GDP i.e. Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela have been shaken. Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is experiencing its deepest recession since the 1930s. Ecuador is also suffering an economic breakdown due to earthquake in April’16. And lastly Venezuela seems to be engrained in profound political and economic crisis and there is no indication for this crisis to be over anytime in the near future. Meanwhile, in Mexico, economic activity is on the up but at a very slow rate. Colombia’s economy, though not at the heights where it used to be once, is relatively stable. Peru as a result of its business-friendly economic policy framework is on a growth cycle moving up at the top of its potential. But the impact of economic downfall of the major countries is so severe that recession is expected to deepen this year. As per recent analysis, the region’s economy will contract 0.4% this year, which, if true will lead to the first incident when Latin America has registered two consecutive years of negative growth after 1982 and 1983.
Brief Overview of the Hot Coffee Market in Latin America
Further segmentation of the hot drink beverages category under the non-alcoholic drinks, provides for one of the most trendy and popular category among consumers i.e. Hot Coffee. Over the time, the global hot coffee market has shown robust growth in sales on account of changing consumer tastes and the coffee becoming more and more affordable to every class in the society. The same scenario has been prevalent in Latin America as well.
Latin America is one of the powerhouses of coffee production worldwide and also it is one of the regions with highest economic growth worldwide (2005-2010) that aided the coffee sales. Taking into account the production side, Brazil is the largest producer of coffee in the world, Colombia being the fourth largest producer in the world. In Latin America, coffee contribute to 2/3rd of hot drink consumption except in one two countries i.e. Chile and Bolivia where tea leads the market.
Last decade in Latin America has seen tremendous growth in coffee consumption due to increased number of middle class families which led to entrance of specialty coffees and specialised coffee stores as well. This in turn triggered increased out of home coffee consumption which accounts about 42% of total coffee consumption now. Also consumption of high quality coffee has increased, reason being growth in dynamism of market, growing methods of brewing and development of origin. In Mexico there has been significant growth in premium coffee market which has led to growth in chains like Nespresso, Juan Valdez etc. Other markets in Latin America having less sophisticated coffee consumption are tending towards diversification of instant coffees due to their practical nature.
Major Players in Latin American Hot Coffee Market
Growing consumer sophistication and the increasing trend for coffee consumption in Latin America is offering access to a large pool of untapped consumers to the coffee producers, hence attracting a large number of international brands to Latin American market along with the expansion of existing domestic producers’ business in the region.
Some of the major market players with their value share in 2015 are:Nestlé and Cafés La Virginia accounting for a combined 53% value share in Argentina, Industria Molinera de Café Ideal in Bolivia, 3 Corações with a value share of 21% continued to lead coffee in Brazil, Nestlé with a value share of 63% in Chile, Colombiana de Café – Colcafé with 51% value share, local players Cia Numar and Café Rey in Costa Rica holding 26% and 25% value shares respectively, Nestlé with a 30% value share in Ecuador, Tostaduría Café León with a retail value share of 24% in Guatemala,Nestlé with 56% retail value share in Mexico and total value shares of 48% and 56% in Peru and Uruguay respectively,Café Fama de América and Empresa Nacional del Café with a combined volume share of 54% in Venezuela.
Latin American Hot Coffee Market Prospects
Over the review period (2010-2015), Latin America has been the fastest growing hot drinks market in the world after Asia Pacific with coffee capturing a significant share i.e. two-third of the hot drinks consumption. Over the forecast period (2016-2021), on account of positive economic outlook and dynamism of consumer preferences for coffee especially towards the convenient instant coffee, the market for Hot Coffee in Latin America is expected to grow with a CAGR range of 2%-7% in different constituting countries of the region and dominate the hot drinks market.Brazil is expected to post the largest value growth in coffee in the world. Leading brands will continue targeting the young population through innovative products and packaging type as well as investing huge in strategic marketing. The market penetration is also expected to increase to every segment of the society and region. Two key factors among the various driving factors, i.e. increasing consumer sophistication and growing brewing methods are anticipated to shape the market outlook.