The global economy continues to be on a shaky footing as growth deteriorates further, according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, says the world remains mired in the worst growth phase in the last three-and-a-half years.
The Markit survey says, “All-industry activity rose in the US, the eurozone, China, the UK, India and Russia. Growth was relatively solid in the euro area and Russia. Within the eurozone, expansions in Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland offset contraction in France. Growth was only moderate in the US and India and near-stagnant in China. Brazil and Japan saw further declines in all-industry output.”
Williamson estimates that the PMI data points to global gross domestic product (at market prices) rising at an annual rate of a mere 1.5%.
Much of the data for the UK was collected prior to the country’s referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU).
That means the British and European economies are likely to slow further in the coming months, as political risk rises.
What does this mean for the markets? Global equity markets recovered quickly from the panic that Britain’s vote to leave the EU caused, preferring instead to focus on the likely central bank actions such as deferring rate hikes in the US and the prospect of further liquidity injections in the UK, Japan and the eurozone. But with global growth deteriorating, the fundamental underpinnings of the market are very shaky indeed.