Southfield/New York:Â Ride-hailing companies like Uber Technologies Inc. will see demand boom between now and 2040, hobbling global auto sales growth, according to a new study from IHS Markit.
As a growing number of consumers turn to ride-hailing in shared cars that rack up more miles than personal ones, new light-vehicle sales growth will slow to a crawl. The mobility-as-a-service industry will itself buy more than 10 million cars in 2040 in the four markets examined in the studyâChina, Europe, India and the USâcompared to about 300,000 in 2017, but it wonât be enough to prevent new car sales growth from slowing âsubstantially,â IHS Markit said.
âA great âautomotive paradoxââwhere more travel via car than ever, but fewer cars will be needed by individualsâwill be a defining quality of the new automotive future,â said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman. âThe shift is just beginning.â
As would-be-drivers hail more shared rides between now and 2040, the cars they call will be changing as well. About 30% of new autos sold in the four key markets will be fully electric or plug-in hybrids, up from about 1% last year, the study found.
Consumers will take a bigger interest in electric cars as their costs drop, driven by cheaper battery packs. Right now, battery packs costs about $200 per kilowatt hour, said Tom De Vleesschauwer, transport and mobility practice leader at IHS Markit. Carmakers need to get costs down to about $100 per kilowatt hour to be competitive with a gasoline-powered car, IHS Markit said, forecasting price parity in the 2030s.
But just because electrification is on the rise doesnât mean oilâs going away. Although oil will no longer have a âmonopolyâ as a transportation fuel, cars powered by gasoline or diesel will still make up about 62% of new car sales in 2040 in the studyâs four key markets, down from 98% last year.
Cars with an internal combustion engine will still comprise a majority of new car sales in 2040, especially as hybrids gain in popularity, IHS Markit said.
âThe automotive future will be defined by transformation unlike anything weâve seen since the dawn of the automotive age,â De Vleesschauwer said. âStill our analysis shows that there will be much that looks familiar, even in 2040.â