India is expected to get on to a double-digit growth in the next 2-3 years if reform process continues, NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Saturday. Besides, he expressed hope that GST will be implemented as both parties concerned broadly agree on the comprehensive indirect tax reforms.
“The scope of India to expand is quite considerable as long as our reform process moves in right direction. We have reason to expect that we will, as I have been arguing, in next 2-3 years begin to touch a double-digit growth. So, I see a very optimistic future,” he said at the ET Global Business Summit.
Even today, he said, when the world market is not growing or growing slowly, India is a very large market with merchandise exports alone at about $18 trillion and services exports at $5 trillion. “So, if we stay on the reform path and do the right thing, I think the pie that exists is very large. Our current share is 1.75% of $18 trillion… and about 3% of $5 trillion in services exports,” he said.
On reforms, Panagariya is confident that GST will go through. “This is something which has had support from both sides. This reform first originated in the previous NDA government… The Congress party had been behind the reforms. Now, there has been some disagreement,” he said.
He spoke about labour reforms being carried out by some states, with Rajasthan taking the lead. Land reform is also being undertaken by Tamil Nadu.
On the external sector, he said, “The key reason why Indian exports declined about 15% against 2.5% expansion in global exports is India’s currency has actually appreciated relative to many of the countries.” China factor has also played an important role as excess capacity, he added