Mahesh Nandurkar, CLSA feels several high-frequency economic indicators have worsened since early December. According to him, notable trend reversals are for industrial production, foreign trade, 2-wheeler & 4-wheeler demand, petro products demand and tax growth while the silver lining is improvement in the WPI which is partly reflected in nominal GDP improvement in the December quarter. With the WPI likely to turn positive later in 2016, nominal numbers and reported corporate performance should improve, he feels. Nandurkar still believes that a broader economic improvement requires capex revival, which in turn is dependent on a property market recovery which is about 12 months away. Meanwhile, Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities says the Indian government will have to balance a few conflicting issues in the FY17 Union Budget. According to him, on the fiscal side, it will have to pursue fiscal consolidation to bring down India’s high fiscal deficit and also provide some fiscal stimulus given a subdued economy and in case of taxation, it will have to target simplification of direct and indirect taxation policies and generate additional revenues concurrently.
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